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Ballesteros-Pérez, P, Skitmore, M, Sanz-Ablanedo, E and Verhoeven, P (2019) Forecasting the Number and Distribution of New Bidders for an Upcoming Construction Auction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(10).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Bidders; Auction; Forecasting; Exponential model; Binomial; Competitiveness;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001694
- Abstract:
Estimating the number of new bidders in construction auctions is relevant for both private companies and contracting authorities. For private companies, it allows the total number of competing bidders to be estimated, which may lead to better adjustments of future bids. For contracting authorities, it allows the population size of all potential bidders to be estimated and thus to implement better awarding criteria. Mathematical models for forecasting the number of new bidders and the population size of all potential bidders are, however, very scarce in the construction management literature. In this paper, we propose an exponential model for predicting the average number of new bidders based on an urn analogy. The model allows the number of new bidders to be estimated as a function of new versus total participating bidders observed in previous auctions. The parameter estimates obtained from the model also allow the statistical distribution of the number of potential new bidders to be modeled using a sum of binomial distributions. We validate the exponential model on three published construction auction data sets, showing that the proposed model significantly outperforms the multinomial model—the most advanced model for performing similar tasks found in the literature.
Bingham, E, Gibson, G E and El Asmar, M (2019) Identifying Team Selection and Alignment Factors by Delivery Method for Transportation Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(10).
Eke, G, Elgy, J and Wedawatta, G (2019) Establishing a Link between Contractor Selection Strategy and Project Outcomes: Simulation Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(10).
El-adaway, I H, Ali, G, Assaad, R, Elsayegh, A and Abotaleb, I S (2019) Analytic Overview of Citation Metrics in the Civil Engineering Domain with Focus on Construction Engineering and Management Specialty Area and Its Subdisciplines. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(10).
Ioannou, P G (2019) Friedman’s Bidding Model: Errors and Corrections. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(10).
Khalafallah, A, Kartam, N and Razeq, R A (2019) Bilevel Standards-Compliant Platform for Evaluating Building Contractor Safety. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(10).
Lagos, C I, Herrera, R F and Alarcón, L F (2019) Assessing the Impacts of an IT LPS Support System on Schedule Accomplishment in Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(10).
Raouf, A M and Al-Ghamdi, S G (2019) Effectiveness of Project Delivery Systems in Executing Green Buildings. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(10).
Tetteh, M O and Chan, A P C (2019) Review of Concepts and Trends in International Construction Joint Ventures Research. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(10).
Wang, C, Loo, S C, Yap, J B H and Abdul-Rahman, H (2019) Novel Capability-Based Risk Assessment Calculator for Construction Contractors Venturing Overseas. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(10).